Texas Holdem Poker - Knowing Your Odds
In texas hold'em poker tournaments there will
be situations where you are trying to make a hand
and you will be faced with a decision as to fold the
hand or call a large bet to stay in.
In these situations if you know the odds of you making
your hand then you will be able to make an informed
decision.
There are many factors to consider when deciding
weather or not to "chase" a hand in texas hold'em
poker. One factor is if you make the hand will it be
the winning hand. Another factor is what does your
opponent have and is he chasing a hand. If he is chasing
a hand what is it likely to be, and if he makes his hand
will it beat your made hand. The final factor to consider
is what are the odds you will make the hand your
"chasing". First of all you should take some time to study
some of the common hold'em strategy and tactics.
This way you will know what starting hands are likely
played in given situations. Also you should have some
understanding of the common methods of hold'em poker.
This will help you to identify opponents hand strengths
by the way they play a given hand. I think it would be
good to cover a few of the common hold'em poker hands
you will find yourself chasing. Below are some of the
most common situational hold'em hand odds:
1.Your starting hand is ace of clubs and 4 of clubs.
The flop contains two clubs. Now you have four clubs
of a flush and you only need one more club from the
next two community cards. What are the chances you
will make your flush? The answer is you will make your
flush 54% of the time. If you miss the club on the turn
then you are down to a 24% chance of getting it on the
river.
2. Your starting hand is ten of hearts and ten of diamonds.
The flop comes and there are no tens in it. What are
your chances of making your set. The answer is only
9% of the time will you make your set on the turn or
river. If you miss your third ten on the turn your chances
of making your set on the river drops to 4%.
3. Your starting hand is eight of clubs and nine of spades.
The flop is 7-10-2 all of different suits. This gives you and
open-endedstraight draw. You now only need a jack or a
six to make your straight. Your chances of making your
straight in this situation is 46% to make it on one of the
next two community cards. If you miss it on the turn you
are still 21% to make it on the river.
Another important factor when determining your odds
of making a given poker hand is how many players folded
their hole cards and what that can tell you about there
starting hand strength. This intern can give you some idea
of cards that may still be in play. Also the number of people
in in any given texas hold'em poker hand greatly effects
the hand strength of many starting hands. An example of
this is that with a table of ten players playing texas hold'em
poker the top five starting hands according to hand strength
and hold'em hand odds are A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J,A-Ks. However;
When only six players are in the hand the top five starting hands
according to hand strength and hold'em hand odds are A-A,
K-K, Q-Q, J-J,T-T. Notice when less players are in the hand
the pocket tens have a higher starting hand strengthand
better hold'em hand odds than the ace-king suited. When
there are only two players in a hand(heads-up) the top five
starting hands according to hand strength and hold'em hand
odds are A-A, K-K, Q-Q, A-Ks,A-K. Notice in heads up
play the ace king suited and ace king off suit have a higher
starting hand strength and better hold'em hand odds than
pocket jacks and pocket tens. This should give you some
insight into what pocket cards are best in different situations.
Your hole cards may be have a great starting hand strength
at a full table, but the same pocket cards may be at a
disadvantage just because there are less people at the table
or in on the poker hand.
Texas hold'em hand odds have to be put into the right
context. Just because your starting hand strength is higher
than your opponents doesn't mean you will win. It doesn't
even mean you are necessarily more likely to win. The only
thing starting hand strength means is just that. Starting
hand strength. To illustrate my point I will use an example.
Say your starting hand is pocket aces. Your opponents
starting hand is also a pocket pair. You have only a relatively
small advantage over your opponent. This is because you
will win the hand if no one improves their hand or if you
improve your hand. Your opponent has the same hold'em
hand odds of making a set as you. So even though your
opponent has his pocket twos against your pocket aces if
there is a two in the community cards and no aces you will
lose just the same as if he had pocket kings and made a set
of kings. The mathematical probabilities are the same.
However; it is more likely the aces will win because in two
of the three possible outcomes the aces would have the
higher hand strength. Perhaps a better example would be
the same starting hand of pocket aces against a king and
queen of the same suit. The starting hand of pocket aces
can only be improved for the most part by one of the two
aces remaining in the deck coming out in the community
cards. The king queen suited has a higher probability of
making two pair than the aces do of making their set. Also
the king queen suited has the possibility of much higher
hand strengths like a flush and straight. Again the starting
hand strength of pocket aces is very high, but as you can
see there would be many cards that could come that would
give the king queen suited the winning hand in the end.
In this example the pocket aces still have the starting hand
strength and hold'em hand odds to their advantage so more
often the pocket aces would win.
Finally you have to understand that all the hold'em hand
odds take for granted that your two hole cards are known,
the community cards are known, and treats the remaining
cards as unknown. What this means is if your starting
hand is pocket queens and two of your opponents starting
hands contain a queen then your chances of making a set
of queens isn't very good. In any given poker hand the
cards of your opponents can only be guessed at and it is
in studying their behavior over time that will help you
make this determination. Taking into account hold'em
hand odds and starting hand strength are tools to be part
of any texas hold'em poker players decision making process.
In doing so your chances of winning any given texas hold'em
poker hand will be greatly increased.
